We are fooling ourselves if we believe government policy amidst this financial crisis means that there will be a new wave of funding for the projects and goals we want to promote. Recessions mean we do not just talk about hard choices; we actually have to make them. The main political challenge facing us looks likely to be high unemployment. With rising unemployment comes job insecurity, higher probability of family breakdown, risks to social cohesion and implications for equality. We have very little time to get this right.
Moreover, much unemployment will be in financial services and high
skilled manufacturing. The new unemployed will have high expectations
of the help and service they receive from our job centres. We must meet
those expectations.
In the last two recessions, unemployment reached three million; it may be even higher this time.
The government are taking action to address this issue and more radical
action is likely in the months to come. The forecasts for government
borrowing will rise further. The government is trying to both help get
credit markets working again and stimulate the economy. However, as
tackling unemployment becomes our main political goal, we may find that
trying to boost overall demand in the economy is no guarantee that more
jobs will be created. The last recession was different, but for a time
there was talk of a ‘jobless recovery’. That could happen again.
Increasing government borrowing to boost overall demand (eg via tax
cuts or more government spending) is probably not what Keynes would
have focused on except in a depression. As Pavlina Tcherneva, of the
Levy Economics Institute, has shown, a genuine Keynesian solution would
focus on raising demand for jobs.
The government should become ‘employer of last resort’, just as the
Bank of England is lender of last resort. The government could employ
people directly through dedicated agencies, working for start-ups or
voluntary sector projects. Incentive schemes to encourage employers
could also be considered. As the economy picks up, it will become
worthwhile for people to leave government employment for higher paid
work.
In this way, people keep their skills fresh and add to their
experience. New businesses that need usually expensive labour can
afford it. The voluntary sector will receive help at a time when giving
is under pressure. And the economy will receive a much needed growth
boost.
Stephen Beer is Chair of Vauxhall Constituency Labour Party and a City ethical fund manager
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